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Just two months ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him over not reading a through-ball. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for the side's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. After Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six games, are somehow just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Serious Challengers?

It remains a particularly tough query to address. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have accumulated.

Per the data, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – but currently the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with two precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.

The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition managed more efforts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, surely, will not continue to drilling the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Potential for Growth

Could it be another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.

• The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.

Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential player for the national team.

This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner faced the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.